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Jay Inslee on Climate Change

As expected, Jay Inslee rockets into first place on the climate change front. Beto's plan is pretty good when it comes to funding, but is pretty vague on everything else. Where Beto relies on a single federal mandate for net zero emissions by 2050, Inslee has three separate mandates for 100% carbon neutral electricity, 100% EV sales, and 100% zero-emissions for new buildings, all by 2030, along with a broader goal of being completely carbon-neutral by 2045. This is much more enforceable than Beto's proposal.

Coalition Building

As a gentle reminder, we're likely to have somewhere between two dozen and too many candidates running for president this election cycle. The odds of any one candidate securing a majority of pledged delegates are basically zero. This means that we're probably going to have a brokered convention, and this means that we're going to have to ask delegates who had been pledged to other candidates to support our candidate instead.

100% net zero emissions energy

As a gentle reminder, the IPCC report explicitly refuses to endorse calls for 100% renewable energy, and instead calls for 100% net zero emissions energy, which includes renewables, non-renewable clean energy sources like nuclear, and dirty energy sources like natural gas and coal with CCS.

Here are the relevant passages:

Democrats 2020 Logo Competition 2!

Another batch of candidates have declared, so there's another batch of logos to review! As always, these reviews are offered in a spirit of good fun, and do not reflect my views of the candidates themselves. In fact, I don't have any views on the candidates themselves, because I am officially neutral.

ISIS and the Kurd's "Go Slow"

ISIS has more or less lost its last remaining pocket of territory in Syria. There are a few patches of desert in regime-held areas where they still operate, and they maintain an extensive traditional cell-based terrorist network, but this is basically the end of them as a ruling body.

Democrats 2020 Logo Competition!

As we approach the 2020 campaign, it's important to properly vet our candidates and ensure that only the cream of the crop is able to rise to the highest office in the land. Needless to say, the obvious place to begin this process is with logo design.

Julian Castro's logo tries to do too much. The accent mark does double duty by emphasizing his Hispanic heritage and reminding us how to pronounce his name. This reduces the effectiveness of his "One nation. One Destiny" tagline ,which is kind of boring anyway.

A Border Mess

I'm very irritated with basically everyone who had anything to do with the current mess at the border.

The Trump administration spent millions of dollars preparing for the arrival of the caravan. The fact that it's only been able to process 60-100 applicants per day is embarrassing. For a small fraction of the amount we spent deploying the military, we could have hired a bunch of temp workers, given them some basic training, and had the infrastructure in place to process the large number of asylum applications we knew were on their way.

US Election Big Takeways

DEMS WIN THE HOUSE. The next two years will be very different from the last two. We're not out of the woods yet, but at least we've found a path.

Illegal Immigration into the US

Illegal immigration was a serious crisis during the 80's and 90's, when well over a million people (almost all Mexican) were illegally crossing the border every year. Since then, though, it's fallen by over 80%, and illegal immigration from Mexico has fallen by roughly 90%. Over the last decade, though, illegal immigration from Central America has risen from basically nothing to roughly half of the total.

Risk tolerance and income

Food for thought: As a person's income rises, their risk tolerance increases. If the money is saved or invested, then as the risk tolerance increases, the average return on investment also increases. As the average return on investment increases, the net present value of that income also goes up. If you take the resulting net present value and tax it at a flat rate, you get something that looks an awful lot like a progressive tax system.

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