marshall.lewis's blog

FINALLY. This is how you take a city, at least in this scenario. You encircle it. Notice how, for months, the Turks tried full frontal assault after full frontal assault, and each time, ISIS, just sat there and killed them. Then the Turks move on Bzaa (the northern prong), and Assad gains fire control over the supply route from the south (that's the other prong), and all the Daesh in their snipers nests realize they're about to get cut off and high tail it back to Raqqa.

Major progress by the Iraqi army in Mosul. They've almost completely cleared the eastern half of the city now.

SYRIA UPDATE: The situation in the North Aleppo countryside is rapidly escalating. As you may remember, this area is strategically important because the Kurds need to take it in order to connect their territories in Afrin and Kobani, and they need to do that in order to be a viable autonomous region in post-war Syria. The are started off mostly under the control of ISIS, with a small pocket held by the rebels. Turkey opposes the Kurds' efforts because they're afraid that a strong Kurdish presence in Syria will cause problems with Turkey's large Kurdish minority.

Sweet Christ. When the SDF decides to move, they can really MOVE. That long noodley appendage was all taken TODAY, completely surrounding an ISIS hardpoint and putting them in striking distance of al-Bab. If would have taken the Turkish-backed FSA weeks to cover that distance.

SYRIA UPDATE: Another week, another massive offensive being launched to retake a major city. Last week the rebels began a major offensive against Aleppo, and today the Kurds began an offensive to capture the area around Raqqa, the capital city of ISIS. There's also the ongoing offensive against Mosul, and we may see offensives against al-Bab and Douma before the year is out.

Oh, nice. It looks like the Turkish backed rebels who had been attacking the Kurds have decided not to wage a bloody battle for Tel Rifaat and will instead do what they're supposed to be doing, which is taking al-Bab from ISIS. Or they're going to pounce on the regime and try to lift the siege of Aleppo from the north. Either way, I think the Kurds have learned their lesson about expanding where they're not supposed to expand.

SYRIA UPDATE: After breaking the cease fire, Russia and the regime carried out a massive series of airstrikes on rebel-held east Aleppo, killing hundreds of civilians and cutting water to the entire city. They then launched a ground offensive from the north, lead by the regime-aligned Palestinian militia, Liwa al-Quds, which was able to seize some territory. Somewhat astonishingly, though, the rebels were able to push them back, inflicting heavy losses and retaking the lost territory.

SYRIA UPDATE: The big news this past week was fighting between the Kurds and Assad in the predominantly Kurdish city of Hasakah, where the regime controls a number of neighborhoods. Relations between the two groups had been good, so this is a bit of a surprise. Discussions to end the fighting are ongoing, but it doesn't look as though a ceasefire has been reached.

SYRIA UPDATE: The Kurds have completely expelled ISIS from the city of Manbij. In this slightly outdated map, the Syrian Kurds are light yellow:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/11/Syrian%2C_Iraqi%2C_a...

MAJOR SYRIA UPDATE: The rebels have successfully broken the siege of Aleppo. Since half of Aleppo is controlled by the rebels and the other half by the government, this means that the other half of Aleppo is now to all intents and purposes under siege. SRO, who has returned from the brink of death to give us more leaks from the rebel high command, says that the rebels will probably try to cut off the small supply route to the north as well.