Finally al-Bab

SYRIA UPDATE: After four months of fighting, Turkey has finally taken al-Bab from ISIS. They also took the nearby towns of Qabasin, Bzaa, and Tadef, where ISIS had been holding out for ages.

Freaking finally.

The big question now is what happens to the area west of Lake Assad, between al-Bab and Raqqa. Turkey desperately wants to take Raqqa before the Kurds do, and the Kurds are almost there, so Turkey needs to sprint south through ISIS territory in order to get to the battlefield. If they can get nearby fast enough, they'll probably be able to beat the Kurds into submission.

The Kurds, meanwhile, need to stop screwing around in the North Raqqa Countryside and take the Tabqa Dam. The dam needs to be taken before the city itself to prevent ISIS from destroying it and drowning everyone. This will not be an easy fight, as ISIS is aware of its importance and will defend it fiercely. They've already beaten back several attempts to take it. Once the Kurds have it, they'll also probably want to secure Tabqa town in order to provide a bit of a buffer around the dam and block a potential Turkish advance. They may also try pushing south from Manbij along the northern rim of the lake, but this will put them in serious danger of confrontation with Turkish forces, which could lead to Manbij being threatened.

The Assad regime, meanwhile, has dispatched its elite Tiger Forces (aka The People Who Get Stuff Done) to take the countryside between al-Bab and Deir Hafir. It was this offensive that doomed al-Bab by cutting its southern supply route. Assad now needs to make a choice between Turkey and the Kurds. If he continues to push toward the lake, he'll cut Turkey off from being able to participate in the Raqqa campaign, which will help the Kurds. If he holds back, he'll open the door for Turkey to march toward the Tabqa Dam.

I suspect that Assad will move to cut off Turkey, since he likes Turkey's involvement in the war even less than he likes the Kurdish push for autonomy. He may also hope that preventing Turkey from taking Raqqa will cause them to take Manbij from the Kurds. Losing Manbij would force the Kurds back across the Euphrates, which could then serve as a handy eventual boundary between them and the regime. Notably, Raqqa city is on the "Kurdish side" of the river, and Deir az-Zowr city is on the "Assad side".

We'll have to see over the coming weeks. The area west of Lake Assad is relatively densely populated, so it's unlikely that any of these people are going to be able to just stroll on through. And, of course, what America does is anyone's guess.

Also, South Front says the regime is gunning for Deir Hafir. If so, a Kurdish offensive along the northern rim of Lake Assad wuld make the most sense.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZDVDeJFBKhY&feature=youtu.be