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Syria Update: Aleppo and Mabij

Syria Update: After an accidental airstrike on a refugee camp north of Manbij, the Kurds opened a corridor to allow ISIS to evacuate. I'm not sure how many militants took them up on it, but a lot of civilians have evacuated. Fighting continues in the city's center.

In Aleppo, it looks like Jaysh al-Fatah, the main rebel alliance in the north, has gone ahead and begun the offensive to open a new supply line to Aleppo from the south. The regime controls a lot of territory down there, so the rebels are currently trying to capture a major town called Hadir. I continue to be deeply skeptical that it will work.

John Kerry has had an astoundingly bad idea in which the US bombs Nusra in exchange for Assad not bombing civilians. Assad not bombing civilians is great, but if the US bombs Nusra (which is the backbone of Jaysh al-Fatah), that will destroy the rebels and win the war for Assad. Assad will likely win the war anyway, but we should not win it for him. The political implications of that would last for generations. I'm skeptical that this will actually happen, though.

In a catastrophic turn of events for me personally, SRO is shutting down due to health issues. Throughout the course of the war, SRO has consistently offered the best analysis, and had access to the best information, likely from inside sources. With him gone, I may have to actually exert myself. I wish him good luck, good health, and a speedy recovery.

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