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Federal Election Campaign: Day 36 and 37

Day 36 and 37 of the campaign, and I thought it was all going to be over. But then the Liberals provide their costings just before the electronic media blackout (hilarious on the days of the Internet, right) and announce $1.5bn public service cuts to fund election promises. Surprise! Also, the last quarter's unemployment figures were announced an they came with a spike to 5.2% unemployment, 8.5% underemployment, and the dollar's down. Move along, nothing to see here, right?

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/16/coalition-plans-f...
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-16/unemployment-and-employment-april...

With Shorten declaring that Labor recognises a "climate emergency" (a very deliberate phrase), the Greens have said that they'll push Labor to support a $1bn fund to retrain coal workers to become renewable energy workers.

https://reneweconomy.com.au/shorten-declares-climate-emergency-as-top-pr...
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/16/greens-would-dema...

There was a last minute rally for the Coalition, with opponents of Labor's negative gearing reforms in the Real Estate Industry Association coming out in truly low scare campaign. Because we know what sort of integrity real estate agents are famous for, don't we?

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/15/real-estate-agent...

There were awkward questions to the PM on how its come to be that two Rwandan nationals accused of murdering eight Western tourists were let in the country as part of a refugee swap with the US. Apparently, it was Dutton who signed off on it, and it had been known since 2016. The fact that government spent $180 million on a photo opportunity by temporarily reopening the Christmas Island detention centre whilst banging on about potential refugee criminals arriving by boat after having flown in alleged murderers by plane is... interesting.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/suspect-killers-from-rw...
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/17/morrison-knew-in-...

In general electoral nastiness, the notorious spoofed emails targetting Kerryn Phelps have now started naming her children. So now it's gone to the counter-terrorism team.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-16/kerryn-phelps-wentworth-abusive-e...

Hanson says that Fraser Anning is a racist trying to imitate her. Pauline Hanson has labeled former One Nation candidate Fraser Anning a “racist” and accused him of trying to be "another Pauline Hanson". Now say that again to yourself Pauline, but slowly.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/ill-work-with-labor-pau...

Open warfare in the LNP as mentioned in the last update as the Nationals are now directing their supporters to vote below-the-line in the Senate. Barnaby Joyce acting like he's still the leader. Meanwhile, Alex Turnbull (Malcolm's son, remember him?) joins GetUp! in promoting climate change and against voting for Liberal MPs Greg Hunt and Kevin Andrews.

https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/coalition-implodes-as-natio...
https://twitter.com/9NewsAUS/status/1128838459861266432

And of course, much of the past 24 hours has been about former Labor Prime Minister Bob Hawke dying. Whilst technically not an election issue, Tony Abbott has managed to put *almost* everyone off-side by trying to make it a partisan issue. Even Scott Morrison didn't think it was the right thing to say. John Howard did, though.

https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/scott-morrison-cautions-ton...

As for seat predictions, I'm almost certainly going to wrong in some specifics, but I'll take a punt and suggest the following:

Capricornia (QLD), Forde (QLD), Gilmore (NSW), Flynn (QLD), Robertson (NSW), Banks (NSW), Petrie (QLD), Hasluck (WA), Page (NSW), Chisholm (VIC), La Trobe (VIC), Dawson (QLD), Pearce (WA), Swan (WA), Leichhardt (QLD), Casey (VIC), from COAL to ALP

(with the possibility of PUP spoiling in the NQ seats for ALP)

Cowper (NSW) from COAL to IND
Warringah (NSW) from COAL to IND

Wentworth (NSW) from IND to to COAL

Corangamite (*) (VIC), Dunkley (*) (VIC) Notional ALP Retain

To close to call:

Higgins (VIC), from COAL to GRN or ALP
Kooyong (VIC) from COAL to GRN
Macnamara (VIC) from LAB vs GRN
Farrah (NSW) from COAL to IND

Also, a little bird also told me to watch Mallee (VIC) as well. Actually, that was the second little bird that’s told me that, one in left-ear and one in my right-ear, so to speak. Something about country folk not liking their water going missing.

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