You are here

Assadists Securing Random Farmland

The regime ended up crossing the Euphrates at Mazlum, a little to the north of where I'd expected, and the Tiger Forces are pushing north, not south. No movement from the Kurds. It looks like Assad's goal is to deprive the Kurds of all of the oil fields, even the one northwest of Deir-as-Zor, which would require a second river crossing. I'm guessing that tomorrow we'll see the regime push from Mazlum to the adjacent Tabiyah oil fiels, and then probably north to cut the N-7. The result is total strategic failure for the Kurds.

Looks like ISIS is starting to collapse in Raqqa. I'm skeptical of the claims that the battle will end in a few days, but it definitely looks like it's entering its final stages.
Meanwhile, the Tiger Forces continue to resolutely ignore my predictions by pushing north from Deir-az-Zor. I'm not really sure what their objective is. There is a crossing at Halabiye, but it was blown up ages ago, and the Kurds can cross the river elsewhere if they want to. They could actually try taking Maadan, but it seems weird to focus on that when they need to cut off the Kurds from moving south. Maybe the regime is wary of relying on the Tiger Forces too heavily, and is giving other groups like the ISIS Hunters the chance to do something major for once.

Meanwhile, it looks like US and Kurdish forces have taken the first oil field. Good job, Assad. It's good to see you you know where your priorities are.

This map illustrates what I've been talking about lately in Syria. The Kurds are aggressively moving to capture as many oil fields as possible and to secure as much of the Khabur river as they can manage. (The Khabur is the little one going south, the other one is the Euphrates.) Meanwhile, Assad is sending his best troops off to secure some random farmland.

Commenting on this Blog entry will be automatically closed on November 20, 2017.