The Path to Marriage Equality

The Equal Love, Inc., campaign group has been operating since 2004. It, and other organisations, have been very succesful in keeping the message in the media, lobbying politicians, and organising rallies. In 2004, Newspoll indicated that support for marriage equality was at 38% with 44% opposed and 18% undecided. Since then, the number of people opposed has declined, and the undecideds has shrunk even more dramatically, and the number of supporters has increased. The most recent Essential Media poll conducted in February 2016 indicates 64% support, 26% opposition, and 10% unknown. The majority of MPs in the Federal parliament now support marriage equality, as do consistent opinion polls over the past decade. On that basis, whether a free parliamentary vote is taken, or a plebiscite is held, marriage equality is likely to succeed.

However, there is genuine concerns over the prospect of a plebiscite. First, is the claim that basic human rights should and legitimacy should not be subject to a popular vote. Secondly, is the recognition that other, arguably more substantial, changes to the definition of marriage have occured without requiring a plebiscite. Thirdly, there is the cost of the plebiscite, an estimated $160 million for the poll itself, plus $30 million of public funding for 'yes', and 'no' cases. Fourthly, the fact that the plebiscite will not be subject to advertising standards of accuracy. Fifthly, because all advocacy organisations (with the exception of Socialist Alternative) oppose the plebiscite. It is worth noting that despite the public support for marriage equality, the opponents have far better access to financial resources, primarily through religious groups, such as the Australian Christian Lobby, who claim deductible gift status for 'the advancement of religion'.

It is almost certain however that the plebiscite will be blocked in parliament. Following this there is some doubt. The worst case scenario is if the plebiscite is blocked, but a free parliamentary vote also fails to eventuate, thus delaying marriage equality until the next parliament. However this is unlikely to happen. Firstly is the prospect that a sufficient number of Coalition MPs will vote for a parliamentary vote even if the LNP parties oppose it (Senator Dean Smith has already said that he will do so; Warren Entsch, are also Kerry O'Dwyer very likely). Secondly, Turnbull personally wants to see marriage equality is will take it to the party room to argue such a case; he needs to be remembered for at least one historic change. Both Turnbull and Pyne have not said a free parliamentary vote is off the table when asked directly about this. This is a risk involved here; Turnbull will face opposition from the extreme right of the Liberal Party who are fundamentally opposed to his leadership - however this is also an opportunity for Turnbull to shore up his support within the Liberal Party.

National rallies in favour of marriage equality will occur on October 10th, the week parliamentary vote on a plebiscite will occur. A Melbourne rally will be held a week after, when the plebiscite vote has been voted down. Between now and then, continuing emphasis must be placed on marriage equality as the primary objective, and a free parliamentary vote as the quickest and easiest way to achieve it.

Notes taken from a meeting of the Isocracy Network on Saturday September 16th at Trades Hall with Anthony Wallace of Equal Love, Inc.