Trump and the Global Rise of the Far-Right

Despite the chaos and misery of Trump's first term in office, his recent re-election bodes an extreme, tumultuous, and dangerous next four years. This is not just the case for the United States, where it will have the greatest and most immediate effect, but also with other advanced economies in Europe and Australia; the far right is already ascendent in France and Germany, and it is likely to gain power in Australia. In all these cases, the success of the far-right will come from populism aimed at disenfranchised voters with lower levels of education and wealth, the collapse of the centre-right, and an ongoing identity crisis in social democracy.

The current and future far-right demagogues that will rule the world in the foreseeable future will enact a program of punishment toward their opposition, reward their favourites (regardless of legality), engage in a culture war against minorities, and, with great awareness of their ironic punishment of their supporters, engage in a wealth transfer from the lower and middle classes to their business allies. It is more than plausible that they will, given the opportunity, transform into a militaristic socialisation of labour in the interests of national capital. That is, a war of aggression against the developing world. Understanding this trajectory suggests not only the dire need for organised and effective political strategy but also a working reconsideration of democracy to prevent another rise of reactionary extremism.

Trump's Actions

The United States, at least for the time being, is the world's largest economy by nominal GDP (although it significantly lags behind China in purchasing-parity GDP, a more useful measure, but does have the highest GDP PPP per capita among major powers). It is certainly the world's most powerful military, with Russia and China taking second and third places and not far behind. It is in this interest that the United States cannot be ignored. What happens in the United States, especially given their history of international interventionism and disengagement from international law, has a profound impact on the rest of the world.

With support from his Vice-President, JD Vance (representing the reactionary religious wing), and the world's wealthiest individual, Elon Musk (representing the rentier-capitalist billionaires), it is abundantly clear what the next four years will hold under President Trump. Immediately taking office, Trump began a series of executive orders and declarations with minimal concern for legal process. On the international level, this started with bizarre claims to acquire Canada, Greenland, and Panama, whilst at the same time promoting destructive tariffs, and, as expected, announcing a withdrawl from the Paris Agreement on climate change and the World Health Organisation.

Public bodies are already subject to fundamental destruction; ending employment and opportunities related to diversity, equity, inclusion (DEI), seeking to alter the constitutional interpretation of natural-born citizenship, making a male-female binary distinction immutable, providing for freedom to promote misinformation, and establishing a "Department of Government Efficiency", which involves retributive mass sackings, whilst at the same time pardoning violent insurrectionists who sought to overturn the election that he lost.

Quislings in The Global Context

Across the world's advanced economies, there is already a plethora of politicians following the model of demagoguery, that is, the use of political action based on popular ignorance and prejudice rather than rational consideration. France has the National Rally (previously the National Front), which almost won the French elections of last year and winning a plurality (37%) of votes, albeit with the New Popular Front winning a plurality of seats, from effective preferential voting, but were betrayed by President Macron who appointed fourth-placed Republicans to lead the government.

At the same time, in the UK, whilst the Labour Party achieved a massive victory at the expense of the Conservatives, the collapse of the Conservative vote was largely due to the rise of the far-right Reform UK, which took 14% of the vote. In Germany, elections are due in February, and the ruling Social Democrats are almost certain to lose against the Christian Democrats/Social Union, but with the far-right Alternative for Germany polling in second place with 20% support. In Australia, notable for its geography and mineral resources, the hard-right leadership Liberal Party, favourites of the mining industry moguls, has began to lead the incumbent centre-left Labor Party in primary and two-party preferred polls. In the Western world, the political pendulum is shifting rightward, whilst the moderates are collapsing in favour of populist hard-right message.

Future Actions

Future predictions are always fraught with difficulty; there are many variables at play and promises by politicians do not always eventuate. What can be stated comes with the caveats of probability, the psychology of decision-makers, and opportunistic choices by state actors. Looking at the international agenda, the Trump administration has made it abundantly clear that they support the extremist government of Netanyahu in Israel in their genocidal war against Palestinians. It is likely that the Trump administration will seek an agreement with Russia over Ukraine, in a manner that benefits both powers. This will probably involve the US recognising the territory currently held by Russia (which includes significant industrial and mining areas), coupled with a trade agreement. Ukraine, a minor player in their own country, will be largely sidelined. What this means for the future of NATO is highly uncertain at this point, and much will depend on the relative successes of anti-European political parties within member countries.

It can be expected that, on the domestic front, the Trump administration will closely implement the proposals of Project 2025. This does not require any surreptitious agreement between Trump and The Heritage Foundation; their political values and connections are sufficiently similar, and the opportunity exists (given the make-up of the politicised Supreme Court in the United States) to ultimately fend off any legal challenges. Certainly, this will involve the reversal of any vaguely liberal practices that assign egalitarian opportunities, such as legal protections against discrimination and reproductive rights, for example.

A vastly overlooked activity by both supporters and detractors alike is how Trump represents an assault on working-class wealth and income. It is extraordinary to think that the world's wealthiest individual, Elon Musk, and financial elites such as Donald Trump, in alliance with the likes of Rupert Murdoch, an owner of the mass legacy media, have convinced so many from the working poor that somehow these union of the world's wealthiest are on their side against an "elite" of community and service workers, teachers, academics, and scientists. The gutting of social welfare, infrastructure, and public services (with the exception of selected subsidies of political favourites), tax reforms that benefit the wealthy and punish the poor (e.g., increased consumption taxes, tariffs, reduced income and property taxes), and an assault of labour rights are all part of the agenda of the Trump administration and those that carry ideological similarity across the world.

Kakistocracy: Rule of the Worst

A characteristic of extremist States that operate with authoritarian and totalitarian agendas is the need for constant violence and chaos of varying levels. The concern that the Trump administration, having captured the institutions of governance, could transform into a fascist regime is far from hyperbole. If they do so, it will come with the spectre of war, and one which hawkish commentators have been already ear-marked 2027 for a potential conflict with the People's Republic of China and the Republic of China over Taiwan. Such a war almost certainly will not eventuate, but the possibility can be used as an excuse to crush what remains of the one body that is capable of stopping the crushing rule of the far-right: an already weakened organised labour.

Of course, the rise of this international demagoguery is a sign of the times, a combination of social media rumours that circulate without responsibility among those least able to asses their validity and a major selection of the rentier-capitalist elite who are only capable of aggrandisement at the expense of others. The control of the former over the latter is the fundamental cause of our current circumstances; developing political economies and processes that prevent such a coup from ever occurring again is a subject for further inquiry. At the moment, one is ultimately reminded that politics is primarily determined by extra-parliamentary means, with the law and institutions dragging rather than leading. Strap yourself in and show solidarity to all, for this is going to be an extremely rough next four years, the worst in living memory.