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Victorian State Election Odds

I have gone through the current betting odds on Sportsbet, on the assumption that professional agencies don’t like to lose money. Sometimes, of course, they get it wrong (e.g., late swing to the governing party in the Federal election of 2019), and odds may change over the next several days.

However, with current odds, the following changes are predicted. Note I have done a transfer of “abolished seats” to “new seats” where it is fairly clear (e.g., Point Cook to Altona). Really new seats are mentioned by name.
There isn’t much change at all. The Greens have done very well out of Liberal Party preferences (if the Libs preferenced according to ideology the Greens would be in serious danger of losing a seat). I guess Matthew Guy wants to empower the Greens I guess: Vote Liberal, get Greens!

Anyway, here are the sober, “we don’t want to lose money”, results from Sportsbet.

Labor gain of new seats: Kalkallo, Laverton, Pakenham
Labor gain from Coalition: Rippon
Labor gain from Independents: Morwell
Labor loss of old seats: Burwood, Keysborough
Greens gain from Labor: Northcote, Richmond
Coalition gain from Labor: Bass, Hawthorn, Nepean
Coalition loss of old seats: Ferntree Gully
Independents to gain from Coalition: Caulfield, Kew

Party Totals
Labor -2 (53)
LNP -1 (26)
Greens +2 (5)
Independents +1 (4)

Close Races
Benambra. Coalition leads, close Independent.
Brighton. Coalition leads, close Independent.
Caulfield. Independent leads, close Coalition.
Glen Waverly. Coalition leads, close Labor.
Hastings. Coalition leads, close Labor.
Hawthorn. Coalition leads, close Independent.
Northcote. Greens leads, close Labor.
Pakenham. Labor leads, close Coalition.
Prahran. Greens leads, close Labor.
Richmond. Greens leads, close Labor.
Ripon. Labor leads, close Coalition.


Nine days I go I ran through the Sportsbet odds (which, I might add, are typically the most conservative). Since then we've had the last two weeks of campaigning, which are usually the most exciting, the pre-polls have run, and there was the strange announcement that the Liberals would preference the Greens over Labor, shifting the Overton Window further to the left.

The net effect of this is that the Greens are in an even more solid position in seats that the hold and were predicted to win, and that Pascoe Vale is a possibility.

The only substantive change is that Labor is now likely to lose Melton to an independent, and that the Coalition is likely to lose Benambra to an independent. This gives the Friday evening Sportsbet results as follows:

Party Totals
Labor -3 (52)
LNP -2 (25)
Greens +2 (5)
Independents +3 (6)

I add the caveat that betting agencies have been known to get it wrong in the past, but they apparently have a better track record than pollsters.