US Election Prediction

2020, October 8 - 00:00 — lev.lafayette

With a month to go, this is how I think it will play out on current predictions and trends.

Keep an eye on Georgia, especially. Not a critical state (that's Penn, Wisc, etc, the "rust belt"), but rather a litmus on how much Trump will lose by.

I remember in the 2008 election contacting a US Dem pollster and suggesting that was winnable in the longer term. They didn't think it was quite ready, yet.

If I were the Dems, I'd be looking hungrily at Texas in the future as well.

But in this election they must win back the rust belt. Clinton did not inspire or offer much to working-class voters there, and they simply did and will not come out to vote for some assumed sense of party loyalty.

Here is also a second prediction; Pence is the candidate who will leads the Republicans after Trump. He comes across as being the stable one, yet his policies appeal to the religious fundamentalists. Which means, of course, that the Lincoln-Eisenhower Republicans, the industrialists, are in for an even bigger fight within their own party.

And let that be a warning to other conservatives (might already be too late for the LNP in Australia); once you start relying on the religious fundamentalists for your finances and support, they will not ask, but take, their pound of flesh. Then you have really lost your party. Perhaps for good.