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The Collapsing Liberal Vote in Victoria

The latest opinion poll from Resolve shows Victorian Labor polling at a primary of 42% (1 percent down from four years ago) whilst the Liberals are at 28% (down 7 percent).

The reason for this is relatively simple.

Labor's vote has dipped a little, but where it dips it tends to go to the Greens, which flows back to Labor on a TPP basis.

The Liberals, on the other hand, have been taken over by happy-clappy fundies, anti-vaxxers, and all sorts of ultraconservatives and, having lost the battle within the party, the moderates have simply moved to the Teals - notice the 12% independent polling.

The Liberals have lost the liberal vote and, whatever their misgivings about Labor, they feel that Labor is actually more moderate than the Liberals.

The Liberals in Victoria simply cannot be trusted, and certainly not even by their own traditional liberal base.

Who was the last Liberal to win a Victorian state election? Ted Baillieu. What did his own party call him? "Red Ted".

That's where the Liberal Party is now.

Nota bene: On the importance of the liberal vote to the Liberal Party: "We took the name 'Liberal' because we were determined to be a progressive party, willing to make experiments, in no sense reactionary but believing in the individual, his right and his enterprise, and rejecting the socialist panacea." (Menzies)

William Bowe from the Pollbludger notes: "Resolve Strategic does not provide two-party preferred results, but the primary vote numbers suggest a Labor lead of as much as 60-40, compared with 57.3-42.7 in the 2018 landslide."